France's Messy Elections Make American Politics Look Orderly

The writer Tom Wolfe once quipped, "the dark night of fascism is always descending in the United States and yet lands only in Europe." After a series of elections culminating in the first round of a national vote won handily by France's National Rally, we might replace "fascism" with "populism," which has certainly landed feet-first in the old world and seems to be settling in for a stay across much of the continent.

France's Populist Surge

"French voters on Sunday put the National Rally (RN) in a commanding position in the first round of snap elections, placing the party founded by supporters of Nazi-allied Vichy France at the gates of power," reports Benjamin Dodman for France24.

"The RN…amassed 33.2% of the vote, far ahead of the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) alliance (28%) and the presidential coalition (20%)," adds Le Monde's Clément Guillou and Corentin Lesueur.

While not unexpected after the National Rally came in first in French elections for the European Parliament last month, the development is momentous, since the party is a bogeyman to the French political class and long quarantined by other parties. It's enjoyed growing popularity with regular voters, especially outside major cities, but the party and its leader, Marine Le Pen, have been considered untouchable—right up until they crashed the gates. That said, like so much about France, the National Rally requires some explanation.

Left, Right, or a Nationalist Grab Bag?

Often described as "far-right," the National Rally was formed as the National Front from the merger of populist and frankly neo-fascist groups in the 1970s. Under the leadership of Jean-Marie Le Pen, Marine's father, the party took some ideological twists and turns, though it was always nationalist, opposed to immigration, tough on crime, and often rife with bigotry. Economically, it's something of a grab bag, basically premised on promising lots of free stuff for which nobody will have to pay. That led the BBC to ask, 10 years ago, whether the party is "far right or hard left?"

"The economic policies offered by the [National Rally and related] parties are often further to the 'left' than many of those offered by centrist social democrats," Queensland University of Technology's Haydn Rippon wrote in 2012.

The National Rally's platform calls for ending immigration, eradicating Islamism, toughening criminal penalties, lowering taxes, renationalizing highways, dropping the retirement age to 60 (President Emmanuel Macron's government raised it from 62 to 64), and subsidizing families and young workers. There's something in there for everybody, especially if they resent the country's elite political class, which in recent years has imposed policy changes—good, bad, and indifferent—wedded to truly Gallic levels of arrogance.

"For those who had been listening, Macron's drift toward authoritarian rule was no surprise," Robert Zaretsky, a University of Houston history professor, commented in 2021. "This seemed to mean that directives were issued from the top and that debate, much less dissent, never issued from below."

The result was the recent election, with the National Rally in the lead, followed by the NFP, which spans the spectrum from Communist to Socialist. Macron's centrists came in third, with others, including the conservative Republicans, trailing.

A Europe-Wide Movement

The results were anticipated after the National Rally led other parties in elections for the European Parliament. That led Macron to call national elections in what appears to have been a fit of pique. But French populists weren't the only ones to benefit from the European vote. Nationalist and populist parties across the continent polled well, growing their clout in the legislative body of the European Union, an entity of which most of them are skeptical.

"Far-right parties have made significant gains in the European Union parliamentary elections, delivering humiliating defeats to the parties of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer," Al Jazeera reported.

Alice Weidel, a leader of Alternative for Germany (AfD), concluded: "We've done well because people have become more anti-European.… People are annoyed by so much bureaucracy from Brussels."

But while resentment of Brussels bureaucrats and opposition to a wave of immigration unite the ascendant parties, they're otherwise all over the place. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's Brothers of Italy has roots in the country's fascist history but leads a coalition that governs like more-or-less traditional conservatives with an extra dose of nationalism. Members of Germany's AfD, on the other hand, keep hinting that they regard their country's Nazi past with a touch of nostalgia. France's National Rally pairs welfare-state economics with nationalism. Poland's Confederation favors free markets and even incorporates a libertarian strain. All dislike top-down dictates from E.U. elites in Brussels and the disruptions associated with large-scale immigration.

A Looming Mess No Matter Who Wins

That's a recipe for chaos in the European Parliament as anti-elite parties with clashing agendas struggle to work together. But France faces its own turmoil as it prepares for July 7 runoff elections which the identitarian, economically interventionist National Rally is poised to dominate, challenged primarily by an identitarian, economically interventionist leftist coalition.

"The hard left's tax and spending splurge could lead to a 'catastrophe', according to Olivier Blanchard of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology," The Economist noted last week. "While the hard-right's programme 'is like a Christmas tree, without logic or coherence'."

For his party, embattled President Macron has warned of "civil war" if either the National Rally or the leftist coalition wins. Since both groups are well ahead of his centrist alliance going into the second round of votes, it might be wise to put off plans to vacation in Paris.

As evidence that the National Rally is still regarded as more untouchable than out-and-out communists in France, more than 200 third-place finishers have dropped out of the runoff election in an effort to boost any alternative to populist candidates. That may or may not trim the RN's ultimate presence in parliament. But the result is guaranteed to be an unsavory mess in any case.

Populism may continue descending in the United States; we'll see for certain in November. But it has landed good and hard across the Atlantic.